South African platinum mine supply to decline by 6% to 3,899 koz in 2025

Global platinum mine supply is expected to resume its multi-year structural decline in 2025, falling by 260 koz to 5,506 koz. With Anglo American Platinum’s semi-finished inventories depleted, refined production in 2025 is expected to align more closely with mined output, which remains in structural decline. However, Implats and Northam, following recent smelter maintenance, hold some excess semi-finished inventory totalling around 230 koz. Both companies estimate up to three years to fully release these stocks, though the pace of release in 2025 will influence overall mine supply.

In South Africa, while input cost inflation stabilised in 2024, persistently low PGM prices continue to put pressure on higher-cost producers. As a result, major projects that were originally expected to contribute to production, such as the Two Rivers Merensky and Platreef projects, have been deferred or placed on care and maintenance.

Cost-cutting measures have been widespread, with approximately 9,000 jobs lost across the PGM mining sector. So far, significant mine supply has already exited the market, and 2025 output is projected to be around 0.5 Moz below pre-pandemic levels.

Capital expenditure has been insufficient to sustain historical production rates, and new projects have not replaced declining output from ageing infrastructure and depleting shafts. At current PGM prices, profitability remains marginal for several operations, increasing price sensitivity.

Further declines in PGM or by-product prices such as chrome could trigger additional restructuring, posing a downside risk to 2025 mine supply forecasts. As it stands, South African mine supply is expected to decline by 6% year-on-year to 3,899 koz.

In Russia, Nornickel continues to face equipment and reagent procurement challenges following the exit of key Western suppliers, while access to international banking and debt markets remains restricted. In response, the company has withdrawn its medium- term production guidance, signalling difficulties in achieving previous expansion plans. As a result, Russian platinum mine supply is expected to remain essentially flat in 2025.

In the US, declining palladium prices have pressured Sibanye-Stillwater’s profitability, leading to a series of restructurings. In September, the company announced a revised plan to cut 2025 production by approximately 45%, including suspending operations at Stillwater West and reducing mining at East Boulder. As a result, North American output is set to decline 15% year-on-year.

Recycling

We have revised our recycling outlook down since the Q3’24 Platinum Quarterly release, as the supply of spent autocatalysts remains constrained despite increased deregistration data noted from global vehicle registration systems. With recyclers originally expecting to see some recovery back towards 2021 levels, expectations have been moderated down from 14% growth to just a 1% growth. The Chinese authorities’ announcement to extend its vehicle scrappage scheme throughout the year and expand incentives to capture China IV-compliant vehicles, may offset some of the declines expected elsewhere as recycling in China is expected to increase. Jewellery recycling is set to decline further, while electronic scrap, driven by the AI technology revolution, is forecast to grow by 7%. As a result, global recycling is expected to improve by 1% to reach 1,496 koz.