Global platinum demand is expected to contract 5% in 2025
Global platinum demand is expected to contract 5% (-437 koz) to 7,850 koz as industrial demand sheds 346 koz largely due to a lack of glass capacity expansions. Metals Focus also expects to see slower warehouse inflows as clarity is gained on the implications of tariffs.
Automotive demand
Based on current light-duty vehicle production expectations of 91.9M units, of which 77.8M will be catalysed, we forecast a 1% drop in global automotive platinum demand to 3,102 koz. Note that the 14.1M BEVs expected to be produced in 2025 would represent a 22% increase on output in 2024. In Europe, platinum demand is expected to fall below 1 Moz to 954 koz, marking a 7% decline.
Combined hybrid and ICE vehicle production is projected to drop by 6%, while diesel-powered car production will decline by 15%, bringing overall diesel share down to 21% in Europe as a whole (East and West Europe combined). A major driver of this decline is the anticipated 41% growth in BEV production, as manufacturers accelerate electrification efforts to mitigate stricter carbon dioxide penalties which tighten from 95 g/km to 93.6 g/km this year.
In North America, platinum demand is forecast to decline by 5%, or 23 koz, to 460 koz. While LDV demand is expected to remain stable, a decline in HDV demand will weigh on overall demand. With original equipment manufacturers holding record HDV inventory levels and uncertainty surrounding the US government’s policies, market sentiment remains cautious.
In Japan, following a challenging production year, platinum demand is expected to rise by 1% as improvements in LDV production offset a decline in HDV production. In China, demand is set to improve by 2%, supported by a 1% increase in LDV production and a 5% rise in HDV production.
This growth is driven by a series of economic stimulus policies which are expected to support freight and road haulage activity. In the rest of the world, platinum demand continues to rise, growing by 6% in 2025, with India expected to see a 71% increase in hybrid vehicle production, while combined catalysed vehicle production elsewhere is forecast to increase by 4%.
Overall we estimate that for 2025 substitution of palladium for platinum will peak this year reaching 860 koz.
Jewellery demand
Jewellery demand is set to breach 2 Moz for the first time since 2019, to reach 2,027 koz.
Fabrication in Europe is forecast to see further, if slower, growth of 1% to yet another record. The gains on this occasion are expected to come from modest gains in bridal / mass market on the back of price differentials. Indeed, some manufacturers who had previously ignored platinum have come round to the metal. The outlook for the top-end is mixed. Some brands are investing in further growth, but such plans could prove tricky, should China and other export markets tip into a tariff-driven recession and if current economic and political uncertainty fails to lift.
North American demand this year is forecast to see repeat growth of 2% to another record high. A yet wider differential to gold plus still weak diamond prices continue to provide support and we should see a better year for engagements given the statistical average of first meeting to progression to engagement. Some sources note structural change in the bridal category which could hit fine metal offtake and, if that occurs, wedding and engagement numbers could undershoot current expectations. At present, we expect stock levels to remain flat but retain some caution given the risk of inflationary harm to the US economy from the new administration’s policies.
We forecast a small decline in Japanese jewellery, even though many of the positive themes we saw in the market, most notably gains at the expense of gold due to the latter’s high price, will remain in place. We feel that offtake in 2024 received an additional boost from stock-building and we also have some concerns about consumer sentiment in the country. Still, at 368 koz the 2025 total we forecast will be well above the previous 15 years’ average.
Our expectation of a 5% increase in Chinese platinum jewellery fabrication for 2025, reaching 433 koz, remains unchanged. Growth will be driven by leading retailers replenishing platinum jewellery stocks following network consolidation. Additionally, successful product development by key manufacturers, strong demand for menswear and unisex designs, and increased retailer promotions through live broadcasting platforms will further support expansion.
In India, we expect fabrication to grow at 7% and reach above 280 koz. The store expansion by both existing and new retailers, along with increasing consumer awareness will continue to support local manufacturing. Additionally, the notable changes in income tax outlined in the budget, which substantially lower the tax burden on the middle class, should boost disposable incomes and support discretionary spending. Also, the rising price gap between platinum and gold continues to entice consumers towards the white metal.
Industrial demand
Industrial demand is projected to drop by 14% in 2025 to 2,116 koz, the lowest level since 2020. After exceptional cyclical glass capacity expansions over the past five years, demand is expected to fall this year, alongside further declines in chemicals offtake.
Although gains are expected in petroleum, medical and hydrogen, they will not offset the above losses. Industrial demand is therefore forecast to make up 27% of total demand in 2025, down from 30% in 2024.
Glass
In 2025, platinum glass demand is forecast to drop 58% (-385 koz) to 284 koz, its lowest level since 2019 and a return to non-expansion levels. This reflects a natural slowdown after last year’s exceptional Chinese LCD capacity expansions. Glass offtake outside China is set to improve, with net negative platinum demand easing from 68 koz to 25 koz.
While further LCD plant closures are expected in Japan this year, no additional reductions are anticipated in Taiwan or South Korea, leading to an overall improvement on 2024. The growth in fibreglass offtake is projected to slow slightly, with China remaining the dominant market, following strong growth from 2021 to 2024.
Chemical
Platinum chemical demand is expected to extend its losses in 2025, although the scale will be far more limited at 5%. A further decline in demand from the Chinese petrochemical industry will remain the key driving force. The current project pipeline indicates a pick-up in PX capacity additions in China this year, but these gains will be more than offset by fewer new PDH plants.
Expansion in the fertiliser industry will also remain slow, with US tariffs adding additional uncertainty, given their potential impact on fertiliser prices and affordability to farmers. By contrast, demand for silicone products is expected to post a modest recovery, albeit from a relatively low base.
Petroleum
Petroleum demand is forecast to rise by 30% year-on-year to 205 koz, a six-year high. This will almost entirely be due to coincidental higher planned catalyst changeouts at gas-to-liquid (GTL) plants. Excluding the impact of this, the use of platinum in catalytic reforming and isomerisation units will remain steady. With weaker global oil demand and the continued rise in oil supply, margin pressure is likely to be sustained for the refining industry. In addition to operation cuts, two refineries are scheduled for permanent closure in Europe. Despite higher oil supply, the latest forecast by the US Energy Information Administration points to slightly lower refining capacity for 2025, due to pressure on margins and expected refinery closures. These losses will be offset by continued, healthy growth in capacity additions in Africa and the Middle East.
Medical
Platinum medical offtake is expected to grow by 4% (+12 koz) to 320 koz in 2025, driven by rising demand for cancer treatments globally and medical devices in emerging markets. Increasing cancer incidence and greater oncology funding will fuel the former, while expanding healthcare access and higher medical spending will support the latter.
Electrical
Demand for massive data storage, driven by artificial intelligence requirements, has extended the service life of HDD products and alleviated the competitive pressure from SSDs. Further, the technological roadmap for enhancing HDD capacity will prioritize increasing storage density over adding more disks and consequently, the metal loading per drive is expected to increase marginally in the future. It is therefore expected that HDD shipments will remain stable in 2025, while demand for semiconductors will remain robust, resulting in a 2% increase in electrical demand.
Hydrogen Stationary and Other
The slowdown in final investment decisions globally has impacted near-term deployment expectations for electrolyser capacity, alongside the potential rollback of incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act aimed at promoting green hydrogen in the US.
Despite this, we forecast a 35% increase in platinum demand, driven by electrolyser capacity expansion and also by the growing deployment of stationary fuel cell applications, particularly as back-up power for large data centres.
