TIN: small market deficit for 2025 is still forecast

Tin prices have strengthened through August, with LME 3-month price closing at $34,802/t last week. This performance has accompanied a tightening in the LME cash/3-month spread, which has moved into backwardation, despite seasonal demand weakness and the recent resumption of mining in Wa, Myanmar.
Speculative positioning continues to support prices, as do dwindling LME stocks, which remain below 2 kt. Indonesian exports have also faltered over the past two months, as smelters await updated export quotas and licenses, while major smelter maintenance in China is imminent.

A small market deficit for 2025 is still forecast, moving into balance in 2026 as the delayed supply recovery gains momentum.