Macro uncertainty and inflationary pressures likely to weigh on tin

With the ongoing conflict in the Middle East weighing on market sentiment and proving broadly bearish for base metals and risk assets, tin prices have retreated from record highs reached at the end of February.

Easing speculative volatility, particularly on the SHFE in China, has allowed the market to adopt a more settled tone, with LME 3-month price averaging just above $45,000/t over the past three weeks.
Risks remain skewed to the downside in the near term, with macro uncertainty and inflationary pressures likely to weigh on metal prices. Record-high LME inventories and softer consumer activity point to limited upside, although recent draws in SHFE stocks suggest some restocking in China.
A prolonged conflict in the Middle East is likely to prove net bearish for tin, although near-term supply risks from Indonesia’s transition to its new RKAB licensing system in Q2, alongside ongoing constraints in Myanmar, provide some offset.