Aluminium on the forefront of America’s energy war
The aluminium energy war is already visible in prices: the LME aluminium benchmark hit US$3707.5 per tonne on June 1, a four-year high, as Middle East supply risk escalated.
The biggest producers have little spare room: China produced 45 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2025 against 45 million tonnes of capacity, while Canada produced 3.3 million tonnes against 3.31 million tonnes of capacity.
The US is exposed: domestic primary aluminium output was just 660,000 tonnes of primary aluminium in 2025, net import reliance reached 60%, and Canada supplied 56% of US aluminium import sources over 2021-24.
Aluminium is no longer just a base metal. It is becoming the first hard test of America’s energy war.
The US needs aluminium to build the grid, data centres, vehicles, weapons systems and factories behind reindustrialisation. But aluminium smelting itself needs vast amounts of cheap, reliable electricity.
