Copper trades at its record levels
HSBC warns of a commodity super-squeeze as copper traded near US$13,832 per tonne in early June 2026, close to its mid-May record of US$14,153 per tonne. Exploration fell to a record-low 21% of global exploration budgets in 2025, while copper discoveries still take about 17 years to reach production.
According to HSBC Holdings Plc the squeeze for copper (and other raw materials) is being driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and mine disruptions, colliding with rising consumption across data centers, electrification, and the defence industry.
“The longer the strait is closed, the more inventories are run down, the more likely it is that we reach ‘tipping points’ in the markets for some commodities,” say HSBC analysts in their report published June 1 report.
The warning comes after the copper price hit an all time high above US$14,000 in May 2026, and Goldman Sachs raises its copper forecasts and cut its 2026 mine-supply outlook by 350,000 tonnes.
By 2035, copper is expected to face a major supply deficit of 30%.
While semiconductors and chips capture headlines, the real constraint is raw materials — the copper in power stations, transformers, switchgear, and cables that determine how much of the new AI and defence build-out can actually be realized — this is the physical bottleneck.
Coppers bull case broadens
Copper prices have traditionally been driven heavily by construction and manufacturing (especially over the last 30 years). Yet, China’s net imports of refined copper slumped to 125,350 tons in February 2026, the lowest monthly tally since April 2011.
So, even if supply is facing disruptions, why is the copper price still rising? The reason is the demand stack is deepening across:
- AI data centers
- electrication (and the energy transition)
- electric vehicles
- defence industrial capacity
- re-industrialisation
