Structural cost for possible antimony smelting capacity

S&P Global estimates a structural cost of US$11-13/kg in 2028 would support economic operations for at least 80%, or approx 54,000 tonnes, of current and possible antimony smelting capacity outside China and Russia.

This is the full cost required for the marginal projects to achieve their target return on investment, including feedstock, operating costs, capital recovery and a 10% operating margin.

At approx US$27/kg in Northwest Europe, antimony still trades at more than twice the upper end of S&P Global’s estimated long-term structural range. This should provide an incentive for new investment.

However, as with so many other metals, the challenge is turning that incentive into operating mines and smelters.

Australia

Australia is likely to provide the most important near-term increase in non-Chinese mine supply.

Larvotto Resources began staged commissioning of its Hillgrove gold-antimony project in New South Wales in July 2026. First ore has been crushed, and the operation is forecast to produce approximately 4,900 tonnes of antimony a year and more than 40,000 ounces of gold over its current seven-year mine life.

At Port Pirie, Nyrstar moved from pilot-scale recovery to its first commercial antimony shipment in February 2026.

The Australian government has also prioritized antimony in its US$850 million Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve, alongside gallium and rare earths. The reserve will use government-backed transactions to secure rights to Australian production and sell those rights to domestic and allied buyers. US$700 million has been allocated for transactions through the Critical Minerals Facility, with a further US$135 million for selective stockpiling and implementation. This could support the price floors and long-term offtake agreements needed to finance new antimony projects.

USA

The US government is now supporting antimony at every stage of the supply chain: mining, processing, qualification and stockpiling.

• in May 2026, the US Export-Import Bank approved a US$2.9 billion senior secured loan for Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho. The 13-year facility includes an upfront commitment of US$2.4 billion, with the remainder covering capitalized interest and fees. Funding remains subject to final documentation and customary conditions
• Perpetua has also received approx US$81.8 million through disclosed US defense grants and program awards to advance permitting, engineering and a domestic military-grade antimony trisulfide supply chain. Their Stibnite project holds an antimony mineral reserve of approximately 149 million pounds and is targeting production in 2029. The company estimates it could supply about 35% of US antimony demand during its first six years of operation, based on the demand benchmark used in its study
• Perpetua is also working with Idaho National Laboratory on a modular pilot plant designed to produce military-specification antimony trisulfide from Stibnite ore
• United States Antimony Corporation received a US$27 million Defense Production Act award in March 2026 to expand and modernize its Thompson Falls smelter in Montana and support mining integration in Alaska. The company has also secured an up-to-US$245 million, five-year contract from the Defense Logistics Agency to supply antimony metal ingots for the National Defense Stockpile
• US Antimony delivered approx 82,000 pounds in its first two shipments, invoicing about US$2.6 million in June. Total delivery orders had reached US$57.3 million by July
• Nova Minerals’ Alaska Range Resources received a further US$43.4 million Defense Production Act award to develop an integrated mine, concentration and military-grade trisulfide supply chain at the Estelle project and a proposed refinery at Port MacKenzie. The company is targeting Stage 1 production in late 2026 or early 2027, but still needs to demonstrate its resource, metallurgy, commissioning and scale-up

The US strategy is extensive and clear: use grants to accelerate projects, loans to finance construction and government procurement to create contracted demand.

However, the scale remains small compared with the projected processing deficit.