Scandium demand could reach 194 tonnes annually by 2035
A single defence customer could reshape scandium supply and demand. In August, NioCorp announced a non-binding agreement with Lockheed Martin covering potential purchases of up to 15 tonnes of scandium oxide annually, supplied as oxide or aluminium-scandium alloys, over ten years.
Lockheed’s potential annual purchases equal a quarter of the 60 tonnes of global scandium oxide consumption estimated for 2025. And potential new demand extends well beyond defence, with the longer-term opportunity spanning aerospace, automotive and energy industries.
An EY-Parthenon study commissioned by Scandium Canada projects global scandium oxide demand reaching 194 tonnes annually by 2035, with a supply gap emerging that year — that would be more than x3 the estimated consumption in 2025.
The market for scandium is comparatively tiny, the world produced approx 80 tonnes of scandium oxide in 2025 vs 29 million tonnes of refined copper (at that rate, copper refineries produced an equivalent weight of scandium in roughly 90 seconds).
But, this means one new major customer or supply disruption can materially change the balance. And there may be more than just one.
For example, not just NioCorp’s deal with Lockheed Martin, but Bloom Energy — using scandium oxide in its solid oxide fuel cells, connecting the metal to electricity demand from AI data centre — alone could require around 200 tonnes of scandium oxide annually by the early 2030s, approx x2.5 the entire world’s estimated production in 2025.
Then, in August 2026, exports from China, the world’s largest scandium producer, fell to zero in August 2026.
The purchases are, of course, not guaranteed, and export restrictions may always be lifted, but the scale and importance of scandium explains why this small market is attracting increasingly urgent attention from defence contractors, technology companies and governments.
