2025 outlook for the platinum market
The outlook for the platinum market in 2025 has become increasingly uncertain due to the United States’ fluctuating trade policy, other nations’ responses and the consequent impact all this may have on the global economy.
Against this backdrop, the experts continue to forecast a deep market deficit of 966 koz, as supply once again falls well short of demand.
Total supply for the full year is expected to reach 6,999 koz, a decline of 4% compared to 2024. Refined mine production is projected to contract by 6%, while secondary supply is estimated to grow by 3%. Total demand is forecast at 7,965 koz, 4% lower year-on-year.
Although automotive and industrial demand are expected to contract, this will be partially offset by a recovery in the jewellery market.
The magnitude of the year-on-year decline in Q1’25 output was largely the result of short-term disruptions, but the broader structural downtrend in platinum mine supply is set to persist throughout 2025.
In South Africa, the drawdown of Anglo American Platinum’s semi-finished inventories, which boosted supply in 2024, was completed in Q4’24. As a result, refined production in 2025 is expected to align more closely with mined output, which remains in structural decline. While, following recent smelter maintenance, both Implats and Northam retain some excess semi-finished inventory, management teams expect the drawdown to extend beyond 2025. As a result, any drawdown during the year is not expected to offset the impact of the depletion of the Anglo American Platinum inventory.
Despite a slight recovery from the Q1’24 low, persistently weak PGM prices continue to place pressure on higher-cost producers.
Cost-cutting has been widespread, with around 7,500 jobs restructured across the PGM mining sector during 2024. Mine closures and the restructuring of operations have already removed significant volumes from the market. Output in 2025 is projected to be approximately 0.5 Moz below pre-pandemic levels. Long-term capital investment remains insufficient to sustain historical production rates, and new projects have failed to replace declining output from ageing assets. At current price levels, profitability is marginal
for many operations, increasing downside risks. Further declines in PGM or by-product prices, such as chrome, are likely to trigger additional restructuring and supply reductions.
South African mine supply is forecast to decline by 6% year-on-year to 3,869 koz in 2025. Excluding the strike-affected 2014 and ACP shutdown-impacted 2020, this would mark the lowest annual output in approximately 25 years.
Zimbabwean platinum production is forecast to decline by 4% year-on-year to 491 koz, down from 2024’s all-time high. The drop reflects the depletion of semi-finished inventory that supported last year’s output, as well as ongoing regional power disruptions.
In North America, platinum production is projected to fall 26% year-on-year to 189 koz, marking the lowest level in three decades.
This reflects the restructuring of Sibanye-Stillwater’s US operations and lower output from Canadian by-product nickel producers, who are facing increased margin pressure. Russian mine supply is expected to remain broadly stable, rising 1% year-on-year to 686 koz.
2025 outlook for the platinum demand market
Global platinum demand is expected to contract by 4% year-on-year (-338 koz) to 7,965 koz in 2025. Automotive and industrial demand combined is estimated to decline by 430 koz, reflecting an ongoing shift to electrified powertrains and cyclical fluctuations in glass and chemical fabrication activities. This contraction is expected to be partially offset by growth in jewellery demand, which is forecast to rise by 106 koz to 2,114 koz. Investment demand is projected to decline year-on-year by 2%, as softer ETF inflows compared to 2024 are expected to limit total investment demand to 688 koz.
