Electric battery metals demand is steady, but slowing
Nickel is a critical component in electric batteries, enhancing energy density and overall performance.
EV sales may still rising globally, but the breakneck growth of recent years has slowed and, importantly, has slowed in key regions – especially Europe and the US, but also in China:
- in the US, growth in EV sales slowed significantly in 2024, increasing by just 10% compared to 40% in 2023
- in Europe, EV sales fell or flatlined in 13 of 27 EU countries in 2024, notably in Germany and France, due to subsidy cuts and phase‑outs.
The share of nickel in electric batteries has also been steadily falling as battery manufacturers (especially in China) increasingly switch their battery chemistries from nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide (NMC) to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP).
This slowing demand could be a headwind for nickel prices, but EV demand is still forecast for strong growth over the next decade despite the recent narrative shift — and any major impact on prices would need an absence of supply discipline from Indonesia, which as recent moves suggest, is unlikely.
The shift in investment into electric vehicles and green technologies comes after Indonesia has already achieved its strategic goal of forcing onshore processing. With NPI, HPAL, and battery-material capacity largely in place, the government’s emphasis has shifted from attracting capital to maximizing returns on sunk investment.
