Lithium carbonate prices increased 130% in late 2025

Lithium prices have staged a remarkable comeback in early 2026, surging over 100% from their 2025 lows to more than US$16,000 per tonne in January 2026.

Price volatility reflects mounting concerns over tightening lithium supply after years of a “glut”, just as demand is accelerating:

• Morgan Stanley forecasts a deficit of 80,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026
• UBS  estimates a deficit of 22,000 tons, compared with an expected surplus of 61,000 tons in 2025.
• global lithium demand will increase by 17% to 30% in 2026
• Chinese analysts expect a narrower lithium market surplus in 2026

Analysts forecast a price range of US$11,432-$28,580 per ton in 2026 — but might prices overshoot and hit US$30,000, a level not seen since early 2023.

The fundamental growth story for lithium remains intact: electric batteries. Despite a shift in narrative and slowing momentum in electric vehicles, including electric trucks that carry a much larger battery, in some key markets, sales continue to rise, reaching more than 22 million units sold in 2025. And that growth is forecast to continue into the next decade.

But, in 2025, it’s electric batteries for stationary energy storage that has proved the game changer. Grid-scale storage systems, built with lithium-iron phosphate batteries, are now lithium’s fastest-growing demand sector.

Analysts across the spectrum expect lithium demand for energy storage to increase in 2026:

• 90% year-over-year to 380,000 mt in 2025, according to an estimate by Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer. And it’s North America that is the fastest-growing region for stationary storage, up almost 150% in 2025
• 45.6% to 312,934 mt in 2030 from a 2025 estimate,
• 55% in 2026, following a jump of 71% in 2025.

Utilities worldwide are still installing big battery farms to buffer the intermittent energy supply from solar and wind power, but it’s the new data center data construction boom that ignited a surge in battery storage deployments in late 2025.

Importantly, the common LFP battery chemistry in storage uses 30-50% more lithium than higher-density EV batteries, due to its lower energy density.

In total, an estimated 55 additional average-sized lithium mines are estimated to be required to meet demand in 2035.