Platinum activity in Q3 2024 and outlook for full-year 2024

Platinum activity in Q3 2024 and outlook for full-year 2024This report provides an overview of supply and demand developments in the platinum market, as well as views on issues and trends relevant to considering exposure to platinum as an investment asset. Key information from the report is highlighted below: 

• Second and third consecutive annual platinum market deficits – forecast at 682 koz for 2024 and 539 koz for 2025
• Supply remains severely constrained despite improvements in recycling, edging up 2% in 2024 to 7,269 koz and 1% to 7,324 koz in 2025
• Automotive demand is projected to hit an eight-year high of 3,245 koz in 2025
• Steady growth in the jewellery sector, with a 5% year-on-year increase forecast for 2024 and a 2% increase in 2025, driven by a surge in Indian fabrication
• Industrial demand to decline by 9% in 2025 to 2,216 koz as substantive capacity expansions taper; it will remain above the ten-year average
• In 2025, net positive investment demand is expected for the third consecutive year, bolstered by Chinese bar demand

The market is expected to reach a deficit of 682 koz in 2024, as the exceptionally strong demand from the previous year is sustained, reaching 7,951 koz (flat year-on-year) and again exceeding supply, which remains constrained at 7,269 koz – a 2% increase year-on-year.
In 2025, a third consecutive annual market deficit is forecast at 539 koz, with total demand remaining strong at 7,863 koz (-1% year-on-year) and total supply increasing by 1% to 7,324 koz.
Constrained supply despite strong Q3’24 and improvements in recycling
Despite Q3’24 supply growing by 7% year-on-year to 1,479 koz – primarily driven by increased stock releases in South Africa, which flattered the quarter’s output – global mined supply for the full year 2024 will be essentially flat compared to last year’s constrained levels at 5,683 koz (+1%, +68 koz). Downside risks, such as the persistently low platinum group metal basket price and ongoing restructuring, remain and could continue next year. For 2025, global platinum mine supply is forecast to contract by 2% (-133 koz) year-on-year to 5,550 koz.
The headwinds that have recently affected global platinum recycling supply could be near resolution. The 2024 forecast is for a 3% year-on-year improvement to 1,587 koz, followed by a 12% increase in 2025 to 1,774 koz, which is nevertheless still 8% below the pre-COVID five-year average.
Above ground stocks are expected to decline by 16% to 3,553 koz, just over five months’ worth of demand cover in 2024, and by a further 15% in 2025 to 3,014 koz.