Platinum fourth quarter of 2025, estimates for 2025 and forecast for 2026
The key drivers of platinum’s price rally in 2025, namely strong supply/demand fundamentals, a depletion of above ground stocks, and macropolitical uncertainty-driven precious metals demand, are expected to persist in 2026. Consequently, market tightness is likely to continue, maintaining investor interest in platinum, and further supporting bar and coin and ETF demand throughout the year.The platinum market recorded its third consecutive significant annual deficit in 2025, accentuated by investment inflows. The 2026 forecast is now for a fourth consecutive market deficit, in contrast to the initial forecast for 2026 which predicted a broadly balanced market.Key information is highlighted below:
- Forecast 240 koz deficit for 2026 follows deep 1,082 koz deficit in 2025
- Depleted above ground stocks projected to remain at just over four months’ worth of global demand through 2026
- Total bar and coin investment demand to jump 35% to 725 koz, with gains expected across all markets and India emerging as a new growth market
- While ETF and exchange stocks are expected to remain at elevated levels, the significant inflows seen in 2025 are not expected to repeat, resulting in total demand coming in 8% lower than in 2025 at 7,619 koz
- Industrial demand to rebound, increasing 11% to 2,124 koz as glass capacity expansion resumes, helping to offset respective 3% and 12% reductions in automotive and jewellery demand
- Total platinum supply to increase by 2% as recycling supply grows 10%, incentivised by higher prices, while mine supply is projected to be flat
Full year 2025
Stronger-than-expected Q4 investment demand – fuelled in-part by a rally in platinum prices – saw the platinum market deficit in 2025 increase to 1,082 koz. This is the deepest shortfall in the Platinum Quarterly data series going back to 2014. Total demand reached its highest level for nine years, up 1% (+73 koz) year-on-year to 8,297 koz, led by very strong investment demand and jewellery demand growth. Total supply saw a contraction of 1% to 7,215 koz.
Revised forecast 2026
The platinum market is expected to record its fourth consecutive annual deficit in 2026 at 240 koz. Total demand in 2026 is anticipated to be 8% (-678 koz) lower year-on-year at 7,619 koz. Total supply is projected to increase 2% year-on-year to 7,379 koz on the back of recycling supply growth alone.
In aggregate, the total market shortfall that has accumulated since 2023 is expected to approach 3 Moz by the end of 2026. By extension, already depleted above ground stocks will fall further to a projected 2,613 koz, providing just over four months’ worth of global demand cover.
Demand segment round-up
Reduced automotive demand softened by hybridisation trends: In 2025, lower automotive demand was, to an extent, mitigated by increases in both light-duty hybrid vehicle production and heavy-duty vehicle production, which rose year-on-year by 17% and 4%, respectively. As a result, automotive demand fell by just 72 koz (-2%) year-on-year to 3,035 koz due to a reduction in overall catalysed vehicle production. The 2026 forecast is for automotive demand to contract by 3% (-92 koz) to 2,943 koz. This reflects a softening of heavy-duty demand and lower ICE light-duty vehicle production outweighing an increase in hybrid vehicle production and 3% growth in the non-road segment.
Higher precious metals prices to weigh on jewellery demand: In 2025, jewellery demand rose 9% year-on-year to 2,190 koz, the highest level since 2018, supported by platinum’s price discount to gold. Jewellery demand is forecast to fall 12% year-on-year in 2026 to 1,927 koz, broadly in line with the five-year average, as higher prices weigh on demand.
Rebound in industrial demand: Industrial demand fell by 21% year-on-year in full year 2025 to 1,915 koz, largely due to an anticipated cyclical reduction in glass demand. In 2026, industrial demand is projected to rebound, rising 11% to 2,124 koz. The recovery will be led by the glass sector, which is forecast to grow by 92% to 340 koz.
Total bar and coin investment demand to hit series high in 2026: In 2025 total investment demand rose by 65% (+456 koz) year-on-year to 1,157 koz. This reflected China-led strong bar and coin demand, which almost doubled year-on-year (+180 koz) to 372 koz. Platinum ETF holdings increased by 7% (+234 koz) to 3,540 koz by year end 2025. Exchange stocks, which started the year at 270 koz, saw significantly higher-than-normal net inflows of 384 koz during the course of 2025, initially due to tariff-related concerns and more recently because of uncertainty around the US government’s Section 232 Investigation.
In 2026, total investment demand is forecast to reduce by 46% to 625 koz, on the assumption that trade tensions ease and elevated exchange stocks unwind slightly, leading to a 100 koz outflow. Further, ETF holdings are forecast to hold steady, neither increasing nor decreasing. Total bar and coin investment is expected to jump by 35% (+188 koz) to 725 koz, its highest level in the Platinum Quarterly data series going back to 2014.
