Gold ended 2024 with a 26% gain, will it be repeated in 2025?

Although gold ended 2024 with a 26% gain, many analysts note that investors are paying less attention to the higher opportunity costs of holding gold as they seek to hedge against growing inflation risks, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical turmoil.
At the same time, gold continues to solidify its role as an essential monetary asset in global financial markets. Many analysts are bullish on gold and silver this year; however, they also warn of potential volatility as gold remains caught in an ongoing tug-of-war between U.S. interest rates and its safe-haven appeal. Despite this, many expect gold’s defensive qualities to overshadow the Federal Reserve’s hawkishly neutral stance.
Specifically, commodity analysts expect Chinese consumers to continue investing in gold to protect their wealth from a weakening yuan and volatility in equity markets. Reserve data from the People’s Bank of China shows it purchased 10 tonnes of gold in December, following an increase of five tonnes in November.
Analysts also anticipate that central banks in emerging markets will keep buying gold and diversifying away from the U.S. dollar to shield themselves from geopolitical uncertainty. President-elect Donald Trump continues to weaponize the U.S. economy, threatening tariffs on both allies and adversaries.
Looking beyond the potential volatility, many analysts expect gold prices to push to $3,000 an ounce. However, even with the strong start to the year, prices aren’t expected to rally in earnest until the second half.