Stats SA: Mining sector contraction in Q1 2025 is a hit to real GDP
The latest figures for real mining production indicate a tough start to 2025, with nine out of the 12 mining subcategories showing month-on-month (m-o-m) output declines in February. As a result, according to Stats SA, total seasonally adjusted mining production declined by a steep
4.4% m-o-m in February. At -24.6% and -18.8% m-o-m respectively, output of nickel and platinum group metals (PGMs) showed the largest declines.
In terms of the annual (year-on-year) change in production, the combination of the mentioned large monthly decline in February and an elevated level of production in February 2023 (i.e., a high base from last year) meant that production was 9.6% lower compared to February 2023.
In the first two months of 2025, production was 5.6% lower than the corresponding period in 2024.
As is often the case, the annual production trends for the main mining subcomponents diverged notably. Manganese, copper and nickel performed well. As mentioned in previous reports, copper bears watching amid a revival of base metal mining in the Northern Cape. In contrast, declines in the heavily weighted iron ore and PGMs industries weighed on the overall mining production stats.
