Sharp rise of tungsten as China controls roughly 80% of global supply
The price rally in tungsten is being driven by a vicious cycle of US tariffs, Chinese export controls, strategic defense stockpiling, and limited new mine supply. China imposed export licencing on tungsten products in February 2025, after US tariffs on Chinese imports.
According to the latest report from Canaccord Genuity, exports of key processed tungsten products (ammonium paratungstate, tungsten oxide and tungsten carbide) halted entirely in March 2025, before APT resumed in April at minimal volumes of roughly 8 tonnes. The export volume of tungsten APT fell almost 70% from 782 tonnes in 2024 to 243 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2025.
The pressure tightened again in December 2025, when China confirmed that only 15 companies would be authorised to export tungsten in 2026/27, giving Beijing direct control over volume, timing and destination of tungsten flows.
The moves come as, Project Blue estimates, China’s mined production fell 10% yoy to 61000 tons in 2025, due to ageing mines (some over 30 years old), lower ore grades, and increased production costs with environmental clampdowns on smaller miners.
US tariffs
The US has 7 companies with capacity to process tungsten but, since 2015, the US has no domestic tungsten mine production. As with so many other critical minerals, Washington is now pulling numerous financial and policy levers (from the Defense Production Act, EXIM financing, stockpiling and allied supply-chain funding) to accelerate non-China projects.
At the end of 2024, the US, under section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974, increased tariffs to 50% of tungsten products from China. And, from January 1, 2027, a new law will restrict the us from procuring tungsten from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea for defense applications. To be clear, as of May 2026, that is 7 months away (and counting), while mines can take years, if not decades to build.
The policy direction is clear: tungsten is being treated as critical to national security.
This not only changes the timing dynamic behind new mine development, but also market dunamics as, for decades, low-cost Chinese supply pushed out Western projects from the market.
US support is being directed across Kazakhstan, Australia, the UK, Rwanda, Canada and the US, including large financing packages designed to anchor non-China tungsten supply.
