Antimony’s supply crisis is far from over
Global demand or antimony is expected to rise from 179,000 tonnes in 2025 to 186,000 tonnes in 2030. But antimony’s supply crisis is not just being driven by explosive demand growth — it is being driven by military and national security necessity.
Ammunition accounts for only about 2% of measured antimony demand, but volume understates its strategic importance.
Antimony metal hardens the lead alloys used in projectiles; antimony sulfide is a combustion-supporting ingredient in ammunition primers, detonators, tracer rounds and other pyrotechnic systems; antimony compounds are also used in infrared and night-vision equipment, military electronics and flame-resistant materials. In many of these applications, specifications restrict substitution and the cost of antimony is negligible relative to the value of the finished weapon.
This gives a small, price-insensitive military market outsized influence over the marginal tonne – just as the US and its allies are expanding ammunition production and rebuilding depleted stockpiles.
For the US, the vulnerability is particularly acute, with estimates suggesting the US was 91% import reliant for antimony metal and oxide in 2025, while China- and Russia-controlled operations account for approx 80% of global mine supply and 81% of processing capacity.
The USA has not produced antimony domestically since the closure of its last mine in Idaho in 2001, and stockpiles in 2003 were reportedly just 1,100 tons (vs consumption of 23,000 tons).
And, Washington is already treating antimony as a defense-industrial bottleneck.
- in March 2026, the US Department of War awarded US$27 million in Defense Production Act funding to expand domestic antimony mining and processing, describing antimony as one of its most critical munitions and materials supply chains
- the Defense Logistics Agency has separately awarded an up-to-US$245 million contract to replenish the National Defense Stockpile with antimony ingots
And this supply crisis is becoming more acute just as the US and its allies race to replenish depleted stockpiles and expand ammunition production, especially with the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. For example:
- the US Army increased production of 155 mm artillery rounds from approximately 14,000 a month in 2022 to about 36,000 a month by March 2026
- NATO reported that Europe’s annual artillery-ammunition capacity had increased sixfold in two years and was expected to reach approximately 2 million rounds a year by the end of 2025
- global military expenditure reached a record US$2.9 trillion in 2025, the eleventh consecutive annual increase
This gives defense demand an impact far beyond its 2% market share: it supports stockpile purchases, government financing and price-insensitive offtake for non-Chinese supply. And, will therefore help determine which mines and smelters are financed.
Civilian applications will, however, continue to determine overall market volume: In 2025:
- lead-acid batteries accounted for approx 31% of global demand
- flame retardants 26%
- solar and specialty glass 23%
- industrial and manufacturing 18%
- and ammunition 2%
Demand from lead-acid batteries is expected to fall by approx 4% a year through 2035 as electric vehicles displace internal-combustion engines and battery producers continue to reduce the amount of antimony used in each unit.
But growth in flame retardants, solar glass and defense are expected to more than offset the fall.
Flame retardants
Antimony trioxide is used as a synergist in flame-retardant systems for plastics, electronics, wiring, construction materials, textiles and vehicle components.
S&P Global expects flame-retardant demand to grow by approximately 3.6% a year through 2035, supported by rising electronics production and the increased use of fire-resistant materials in electric vehicles.
Solar glass
Antimony compounds are used as clarifying agents in photovoltaic glass, helping remove bubbles and improve light transmission.
Solar and specialty glass already account for approximately 23% of global antimony demand, up from a much smaller share a decade ago.
