Major copper producers are under strain
Global mined copper supply reached 22.8 Mt in 2024, with Chile (the world’s largest producer), supplying a quarter of global output; Chile and Peru together account for roughly 1/3 of global mined copper. The Democratic Republic of Congo extended its lead in mined production over Peru in 2024 to remain the second-largest producer.
However, long-term structural supply problems include:
- declining ore grades
- asset retirements
- reserve depletions
- rising costs
- increasingly complex extraction conditions
The global mined copper supply will peak in the late 2020s (at approx 24Mt), after which output will decline noticeably to less than 19 Mt by 2035. And then there’s the short-term disruptions that are playing havoc and accelerating the trend.
For example:
- in January 2026, contract-workers in Chile blockaded access roads to Escondida and Zaldivar (the world’s largest and a top-10 mine) delaying shifts and transport
- in January 2026, production at two mines in Chile largely halted after the mine’s desalination plant was shut down amid a nearly three-week labour strike
- in September 2025, Freeport-McMoRan declared “force majeure” after a disaster at its Grasberg Block Cave mine (the world’s second-largest copper mine).
- in July 2025, artisanal miners blocked a key route for MMG’S Las Bambas, Hudbay’s Constancia and Glencore’s Antapaccay, in Peru
Such immediate-term disruptions compound the longer-term issues; for example, Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, has cut its forecast for 2025 output, despite higher production in the year’s first nine months through September.
Meanwhile, many key global projects are delayed such as Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, First Quantum’s Cobre in Panama, and has not been reopened; regulatory delays have pushed potential production in Rio Tinto and BHP’s Resolution copper mine into the 2030s (one of the largest undeveloped copper deposits in the world, with potential to supply 25% of current US copper demand).
The world will need an estimated 80 new, large copper mines to meet demand by 2040. Many of these mines will come at the extremes of copper’s frontiers. With copper’s price rising, the risk-reward is shifting in Papua New Guinea’s favour.
And, the PNG government, eager to diversify beyond LNG and gold, pitches these projects as nation-building ventures.
In summary, PNG’s risk-reward profile is extreme. On one hand, few places on Earth match its copper potential at a time when new supply is desperately needed. On the other, turning that potential into cash requires surmounting technical, political and financial obstacles.
