Palladium focus: Electric vehicle growth is slowing
EV sales are still rising globally, but the breakneck growth is cooling and, importantly, has slowed in key regions – especially Europe and the US, but also in China, which is the world’s biggest car market and accounts for more than half of global EV sales):
in the US, growth in EV sales slowed significantly in 2024, increasing by just 10% compared to 40% in 2023
in Europe, EV sales fell or flatlined in 13 of 27 EU countries in 2024, notably in Germany and France, due to subsidy cuts and phase‑outs; in Germany
“Passenger electric-car sales in the US rise from 1.6 million in 2025 to 4.1 million in 2030 in this year’s outlook, representing 27% of sales. This is significantly less than in BNEF’s previous outlook — cumulative EV sales between now and 2030 are 14 million units lower” — BloombergNEF, Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025.
Hybrids accelerating
Sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) and Range-extender EVs (EREVs) — all of which still require a catalytic converter — are now outpacing sales of battery electric vehicles in many large markets with sales rising 83% in 2024 to 1.2 million:
- about 22% of light-duty vehicles sold in Q1 2025 in the US were hybrid, battery electric, or plug-in hybrid vehicles, up from about 18% in the first quarter of 2024
- plug-in hybrid sales surged 62% across greater Europe in September 2025, according to the ACEA, the industry’s main lobbying group
in 2024, EREV models accounted for nearly 25% of electric SUV sales in China, and they dominated the larger end of the electric SUV segment, making up 60% of large electric SUV sales.
In other words, relative to forecasts even a year ago, EVs are stalling while hybrids and ICE vehicles are holding ground — and in many markets accelerating — keeping palladium-rich autocatalysts firmly at the centre of the auto supply chain. And, for supply, this is a challenge.
