For 2021 total platinum supply is now forecast to rise 19% year-on-year to 8,114 koz, still below the 2019 level despite the inclusion of the 380 koz contribution from the ACP inventory unwind. Demand is expected to fall 5% year-on-year, as significant outflows from ETFs and stocks held by exchanges exceed the collective year-on-year growth in automotive, jewellery and industrial demand.
Consequently, the WPIC forecast surplus for 2021 has increased from 190 koz to 769 koz. Notably a 14% (+340 koz) growth in platinum automotive demand is anticipated despite the global semiconductor shortage limiting automotive production.
The dominant trends that influenced platinum supply and demand in 2021 are expected to continue into 2022, resulting in a projected surplus of 637 koz, although this is very dependent upon the pace of the recovery in automotive production, as well as changes in global ETF and exchange stock holdings.