Tightening supply backdrop puts US-based lithium optionality in focus

As the US moves to onshore lithium supply for economic and national security reasons, domestic hard-rock lithium projects are attracting renewed attention, particularly those outside the congested permitting bottlenecks of federal land and long-dated development timelines.

Lion Rock Resouces is advancing the Volney lithium-gold-tin project in South Dakota’s Black Hills, an historic mining district. What makes this one stand out is the combination of concentrate-grade lithium and the potential for rapid development all the way to production.

Unlike many US lithium plays focused on brines or clay, Lion Rock’s lithium exposure is spodumene-bearing LCT pegmatites, the same style of hard-rock lithium that underpins supply from Australia and parts of Canada. Historic work at Volney returned lithium grades up to 5.4% Li₂O, with bulk sampling averaging approx 2.5% Li₂O, placing it firmly in concentrate-grade territory.

The project has seen limited modern drilling, most historic holes were shallow (<50m), leaving significant expansion potential at depth and along strike across a district-scale pegmatite system. In late 2025, Lion Rock completed its first modern drill program, intersecting spodumene-bearing pegmatites, with assays pending.

If the assays confirm the presence of a large, high-grade lithium system then Lion Rock will quickly find itself on a lot of investor radars. However, it’s the project’s existing infrastructure, private land tenure (accelerated permitting), and direct access to power, road, and rail, that will almost certainly attract the attention of some big players.

Lion Rock has significant funding already in place following a C$5.3m financing in Q3 2025, positioning it to move quickly through follow-up drilling and definition work as results flow.

In a market where new lithium supply takes a decade or more to deliver, early-stage US hard-rock discoveries represent asymmetric exposure to higher prices, particularly if lithium overshoots toward the upper end of the $20,000–$30,000 range being discussed for 2026.

Mainstream forecasts suggest 2026 prices in a range of US$15,000-$28,000 per tonne, but there is also a more optimistic scenario, that includes:

• historical precedents with lithium’s price volatility
• lithium is also being pulled into the broader debasement trade. As investors position for structurally higher deficits, industrial policy spending, and looser fiscal discipline, hard assets tied to electrification and national security are increasingly treated as stores of strategic value, not just cyclical commodities — amplifying price moves when markets tighten
• political risk (protests or geopolitical fallout) in any of the major producers or suppliers, including South America or Africa
• (and factoring in no “hard landing” for the economy)

All of these factors could help push the lithium price toward $30,000 or higher.