TIN PRODUCTION: Around 16% of global mine supply is currently offline

Tin prices remain elevated amid supply disruptions and strong fund support, with LME 3-month price closing above $35,000/t yesterday. Despite indications that Wa authorities are preparing to lift the mining ban in Myanmar—combined with the recent suspension of operations at Bisie in DR Congo— around 16% of global mine supply is currently offline.
Given these feedstock constraints, China’s refined production will struggle to match last year’s output in 2025, with a further tightening of the country’s raw material supply anticipated in Q2. Indonesian exports more than doubled month-on-month in February to just under 4,000 t, although the arbitrage opportunity to China remains closed.
Positive semiconductor market momentum has continued into 2025, with global sales up 17.9% year-on-year in January. Meanwhile, LME stocks have dropped 36% in 2025 to just above 3,000 t—the lowest level since June 2023—and the LME cash/3-month spread is tightening from the wide contango seen at the end of last year.