Total platinum supply to increase by 2% as recycling grows 9%

Platinum Quarterly data set examines activity in the first quarter of 2026 and provides a revised forecast for full year 2026. Independent analysis is provided by its research partner, Metals Focus. 
The platinum market continues to be undersupplied, and, despite geopolitical headwinds in the Middle East, platinum demand is well insulated. Incoming emissions regulations are supportive of automotive demand, while a renewed focus on regional energy security is reinvigorating interest in hydrogen technologies, a longer-term demand accelerant. Platinum is also playing a vital role across many technologies underpinning the rollout of AI infrastructure – from optical communications to data storage.
Key information from the report is highlighted below: 

• The forecast for a fourth consecutive market deficit in 2026 has deepened modestly to 297 koz (previously 240 koz)
• Further depletion of above ground stocks – just under three months’ worth of cover to meet global demand now expected by the end of 2026 at 1,747 koz
• Total bar and coin investment demand growth to maintain momentum, rising 27% to 718 koz in full year 2026, propelled by a strong first quarter and growth across all regions
• Total platinum demand is expected to reduce 9% year-on-year to 7,674 koz, predominantly because last year’s significant exchange stock and ETF inflows are not expected to reoccur
• Strengthening industrial demand, increasing 9% to 2,238 koz, on the resumption of glass capacity expansions, partially offsets lower automotive and jewellery demand (-2% and -12%, respectively)
• Total platinum supply to increase by 2% as recycling grows 9%, incentivised by higher prices, while mine supply is projected to be flat

Q1’26
The platinum market recorded a surplus of 268 koz in Q1’26. This reflected both year-on-year total supply growth of 18% (+267 koz to 1,736 koz) on unseasonably strong output from South Africa, and a 31% year-on-year reduction in total demand (-659 koz to 1,468 koz), the single largest factor being ETF and exchange stock outflows totalling 374 koz.
Revised forecast for full year 2026
A number of the Q1’26 trends are expected to reverse over the course of the year and the platinum market is forecast to record its fourth consecutive annual deficit in full year 2026, at 297 koz. Total demand in 2026 is forecast to be 9% (-757 koz) lower year-on-year at 7,674 koz, mainly due to a reversal in both exchange stock and ETF investment, which are expected to see net outflows of 100 koz each, in contrast to the significant inflows seen last year. Total supply is projected to increase 2% (+137 koz) year-on-year to 7,377 koz on the back of recycling growth.
In full year 2026, mine supply is expected to be broadly flat year-on-year at 5,551 koz as modest gains in South Africa are offset by declines elsewhere. Recycling is forecast to rise 9% (+147 koz) to 1,826 koz, although downside risks exist as recyclers continue to face working capital constraints due to markedly higher PGM prices, and the trend for lower loadings and recoveries per catalyst persists.