Will economy change under Trump’s four more years?

Four more years of the Trump administration will look very like it does now, economy-wise. The Covid-19 pandemic will continue to disturb the economy in 2021 and into 2022. Thereafter, a continued Democratic majority in the House of Representatives will deadlock major new policy initiatives from President Trump, at least for two years, Forbes says.

An important change from the election is the likely passage of a “stimulus bill” (a stimulus bill will not stimulate economy but just shift money from some pockets to others). Both Democrats and Republicans want a stimulus bill. The most likely beneficiaries will be low-income workers who lost their jobs. Some specific industries, such as airlines, stand a good chance winning subsidies.

In the coming two years, a major infrastructure bill is also likely. Look for more construction activity across the country. However, infrastructure construction will not prove stimulative to the overall economy for the same reason that a stimulus bill is not stimulative.

Trump also wants to extend the 2017 tax cuts, which are slated to sunset in 2025. That is unlikely with the Democrats running the House. If the GOP can regain that chamber in 2022, then tax cut extension is likely.

International trade relations will continue to deteriorate in erratic fashion. Immigration will continue to be limited. The Trump administration is likely to make further progress reducing environmental and labor regulations.

The federal budget will continue in deficit for the next four years. Fiscal discipline is a lost art in Washington DC. We’ll see minor changes in the economy, but generally, it will look about the same. Business leaders who continue to focus on serving customers efficiently will outperform those preoccupied with politics.

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