Indonesia forecast to represent more than 60% of global supply by 2028
By 2030, demand for battery-grade nickel is projected to triple, driven largely by production of electric vehicles (EVs) in the West. The challenge for Western economies is that Indonesia, with the support of China, dominates global nickel production:
- 54% of mined nickel supply coming from Indonesia in 2023
- Indonesia forecasts to represent more than 60% of global supply by 2028
Concerns that Indonesia may use this market dominance to gain economic and geopolitical leverage intensified when an international trade war was launched over nickel in 2024.
Without access to secure supply of nickel, North America’s production of electric batteries is not secure — and it’s not just about EVs, but defence, the energy transition, and more.
Nickel
Nickel is listed as a critical mineral in the US for good reason, essential for:
- EVs
- stainless steel
- aerospace and defence
- AI and data centers
- the energy transition and nuclear power
Electric batteries
Benchmark Minerals projects that nickel-based chemistries will capture 85% battery cell production capacity outside of China by 2030. Electric batteries are forecast to account for over 50% of nickel demand growth by 2030, reaching 1.5 million tonnes of nickel demand by the end of the decade.
And, even if the electric battery chemistry in the West can also push the nickel content down, demand is still expected to rise as sales of electric vehicles increases.
The Great Nickel Trade War
Nickel is at the centre of a global trade war over market share, with Indonesia forcing the price down by more than 50% since the recent peak in December 2022 to take out Western competitors.
In its recent analysis — The Great Nickel Trade War — the list of nickel mines closing is growing longer, especially in Australia, with at least 8 mothballing operations.
Indonesia is working to monopolise its market dominance of the nickel supply chain, from mining to refining to electric battery production.
