Outlook for the platinum market in 2026
The outlook for the platinum market in 2026 remains highly uncertain, shaped by elevated geopolitical tensions and volatility in energy markets. Rising energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East have to an extent tempered sentiment across the precious metals complex, as inflation risks have re-emerged and macroeconomic policy expectations have turned more hawkish.
As far as its fundamentals are concerned, we forecast that the platinum market will record a lower deficit of 297 koz in 2026, as demand softens. While this is the smallest deficit in four years and represents a marked contraction from the 1,191 koz deficit recorded in 2025, the market will remain in a structural shortfall, now for a fourth consecutive year.
We expect total supply will increase by 2% year-on-year to 7,377 koz. Mine supply is expected to remain broadly flat at 5,551 koz, while secondary supply rises by 9% to 1,826 koz, supported by increased collection of spent autocatalysts. We forecast total demand will decline by 9% to 7,674 koz.
Automotive demand is expected to soften by 2%, while industrial demand is projected to increase by 9%, led by strong growth in glass. Jewellery demand is forecast to contract by 12%.
Investment demand is expected to decline sharply by 54% to 519 koz, reflecting substantial exchange stock and ETF outflows compared to significant inflows in 2025. However, retail investment, and demand for bars of 500g or larger in China, are forecast to exhibit robust growth.
