Cochilco Upgrades Copper Price Outlook for 2026 Amid Constraint
Chile’s copper commission, Cochilco, has revised upward its average copper price projection for 2026, now expecting the metal to trade at $5.55 per pound. The agency also anticipates prices will stay comparatively high in 2027, with an average forecast of $5.10 per pound, supported by robust worldwide demand and ongoing supply tightness.
The revised estimates were released Tuesday in Cochilco’s quarterly report covering first-quarter trends in the copper market. According to the commission, the outlook continues to be underpinned by demand linked to the global transition toward cleaner energy, the expansion of electric vehicle manufacturing, advances in emerging technologies and growing artificial intelligence-related activity, while supply-side risks remain unresolved.
Chile’s Minister of Economy and Mining, Daniel Mas, said the stronger price forecast reflects “solid global demand and a market with tight supply.”
Mas added that elevated copper prices are expected to strengthen Chile’s public finances while further consolidating the country’s standing as the world’s leading copper producer.
Cochilco projects that global demand for refined copper will increase by 1.5% in 2026 and by a further 2.3% in 2027. Total demand is expected to reach 28.2 million metric tons in 2026 and rise to 28.8 million metric tons the following year.
On the production side, worldwide mined copper output is forecast to total 23.3 million metric tons in 2026, representing growth of 0.5%. Production is then expected to climb 4.7% in 2027 to 24.39 million metric tons, driven primarily by output increases in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Mongolia, Canada and the United States.
Even with that anticipated growth in mine supply, Cochilco believes the refined copper market will remain relatively constrained. Following an estimated deficit of 124,000 metric tons in 2025, the commission expects only a slight surplus of 12,000 tons in 2026, followed by a more moderate surplus of 153,000 tons in 2027.
Chile is projected to maintain roughly 22% of global copper mine production. However, the country’s own copper output is expected to decline by 2.0% in 2026 to 5.3 million metric tons before rebounding by 4.0% in 2027 to approximately 5.5 million metric tons.
According to Cochilco, the anticipated decline in Chilean production during 2026 is tied to lower ore grades, planned maintenance work, operational challenges and weaker-than-expected performance earlier in the year.
