Copper demand: Electric vehicles and energy transition

Copper demand is rising because grids, EVs, construction, industry and data centres are all expanding, with the IEA projecting total demand reaching 34.1 million tonnes by 2040.

Electric car sales grew by 20% globally to exceed 20 million in 2025, meaning one-quarter of all new cars sold were electric. This matters for copper as an battery-electric car requires 183 lbs of copper, x3.6 the intensity of internal-combustion models.

By 2030, global passenger EV sales will reach 39 million vehicles, equal to 42% of all new car sales globally. At roughly183 lbs of copper per EV, that would require about 3.2 million tonnes of copper — a significant draw in a global refined copper market of 27 million tonnes in 2024.

And, despite general skepticism towards net zero targets and some of the more outlandish projections for the energy transition, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy prices has reignited demand for alternative energy supply.

And copper is the most important mineral for almost all renewable energy; for example, solar capacity additions in 2040 are expected to be triple those of 2020, resulting in a near tripling of copper demand from solar PV; and offshore wind requiring greater cabling, will mean copper demand could reach 600kt per year in 2040.

Construction and re-Industrialisation

Equipment manufacturing, followed by construction and infrastructure, are still the largest end-users of copper — and, efforts by the West to (re-) industrialise and urbanisation across Asia and India, are also helping to offset falling copper consumption in China.

For example, in 2024, total US copper use increased across nearly all sectors:

• electrical equipment and electronics: up 4%, showing copper’s expanding role in power systems and advanced technologies
• industrial machinery: up 5%, driven by modernization and automation trends
• building construction: up 3%, supported by home electrification and renewable-ready infrastructure

Core economic demand globally is forecast to increase by 2% annually, from 18 million metric tons in 2025 to 23 million metric tons by 2040.

Defence industry

Estimating copper demand from global militaries and defence systems is challenging due to national security restrictions on disclosure, but as defence budgets and geopolitical instablity increases, so too does copper demand.

To give an impression of defence demand, as we estimate in a previous newsletter, Russia’s 11 million shells fired against Ukraine in 2022 contain same amount of copper as 10% of UK’s total wind turbine capacity.

But it’s not just shells, but missiles to increased naval capacity. And, as world military expenditure reached US$2887 billion in 2025, an increase of 2.9% in real terms over 2024, so to copper demand is expected to increase proportionately.