World Platinum Investment Council examines activity in Q2/2026
For full year 2026, a platinum market surplus of 265 koz is forecast. This is overwhelmingly due to investment outflows that occurred during the first half of the year against a backdrop of heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. The modest surplus that is expected this year follows three consecutive years (2023-2025) of significant deficit and does little to reduce the platinum market’s reliance on exceptionally lean and increasingly illiquid above ground stocks. It is our expectation that platinum will continue to trend in line with overall sentiment towards precious metals, which could provide potential upside for platinum investment demand during the remainder of the year, especially should interest rate increases fail to materialise or be lower than expected.
Overview of Q2’26
In Q2’26, the platinum market recorded a surplus for the second successive quarter, at 244 koz. Total supply was broadly stable year-on-year at 1,906 koz (+1%), while total demand fell by 16% (-308 koz) year-on-year to 1,663 koz. Exchange traded fund (ETF) outflows of 234 koz, resulting in net disinvestment of 121 koz, were the single largest factor behind the quarterly surplus. Meanwhile, industrial demand growth of 6% year-on-year (+33 koz) to 600 koz could not offset weaker-than-expected jewellery demand, down 32% year-on-year (-215 koz) to 456 koz, and softer year-on-year automotive demand of 729 koz (-6%, -49 koz).
Updated full year 2026 forecast
For full year 2026, ETF outflows seen in H1’26 are expected to reverse, partially offsetting the 548 koz surplus in the first half of the year and resulting in a forecast annual surplus of 265 koz. Total supply is projected to increase 2% (+123 koz) year-on-year to 7,353 koz on the back of recycling growth alone. Total demand is forecast to fall 18% year-on-year (-1,582 koz) to 7,089 koz, principally due to significantly lower investment demand compared to the prior year.
The impact of the modest surplus expected in 2026 on above ground stocks (AGS) is mitigated by a prior-year adjustment, which has resulted in the estimated 2025 deficit deepening to 1,440 koz (+249 koz versus our previous estimate). In 2026, AGS are forecast to increase to 2,010 koz by year end, providing just over 3.4 months of global demand cover.
