PLATINUM: Demand segment round-up
Automotive demand resilient supported by hybridisation and heavy-duty trends:
Automotive platinum demand declined by 6% year-on-year (-46 koz) to 720 koz in Q1’26. In full year 2026, this is expected to moderate to a 2% year-on-year reduction (-72 koz) to 2,959 koz, despite headwinds from current global macroeconomic uncertainties and oil-shock concerns in relation to the current crisis in the Middle East. A projected 8% reduction in pure internal combustion engine (ICE) light-duty vehicle production will be mostly offset by a 12% increase in hybrids, with additional support coming from the ICE heavy-duty segment in the US and India.
Higher precious metals prices and cost of living concerns impact jewellery demand:
In Q1’26 jewellery demand contracted by 13% year-on-year (-71 koz) to 461 koz, with weak underlying volumes across most regions outweighing pockets of strength in the European luxury market. In China, the quarter was especially weak, with platinum jewellery demand falling 42% year-on-year. In full year 2026, global platinum jewellery demand is forecast to fall 12% year-on-year (-256 koz) to 1,958 koz. Demand in Europe, which is projected to reach another record high, and a return to growth in India (+5%), will be unable to offset reductions in the US (-7%), Japan (-5%) and China (-43%).
Cyclical upswing in glass demand leads return to industrial demand growth:
Industrial demand increased by 41% (+150 koz) year-on-year to 513 koz in Q1’26, with glass demand reaching 94 koz during the quarter, following an especially depressed Q1’25 in which glass demand was negative due to plant closures. This gain more than offset weakness in the chemical segment, which declined year-on-year to 116 koz (-4%), and a sharp contraction in petroleum demand to 33 koz (-28% year-on-year).
In full year 2026, a 9% increase in industrial demand is anticipated (+189 koz) to 2,238 koz, led by growth in glass demand (+83% to 377 koz). Increases are also expected across all other sectors with the exception of petroleum (-28%) and the ‘other’ category which is expected to be flat. Since our previous forecast, the full year forecast for petroleum demand has been lowered by 22 koz to 132 koz (versus 182 koz in full year 2025) to reflect the downside risk of disruption to this sector caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
Strong bar and coin demand growth set to continue:
Q1’26 saw net disinvestment of 225 koz with significant divergence between outflows from exchange stocks and ETFs (-374 koz in aggregate) and strong total bar and coin demand (149 koz). In 2026, total investment demand is forecast to reduce by 54% year-on-year to 519 koz. Exchange stocks and ETFs are expected to see net outflows of 100 koz each as tariff-related concerns recede and investors look to take profits on the higher platinum price (when compared to this time last year). While these outflows are relatively modest, they represent a considerable swing versus the inflows seen in 2025. In contrast, total bar and coin investment is expected to jump by 27% (+151 koz) to 718 koz – a six-year high.
