Outlook for the platinum supply in 2026
Global platinum mine supply is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 5,551 koz in 2026, as modest gains in South Africa are offset by declines elsewhere. Higher PGM prices over the past 12 months have materially improved mining economics, alleviating prior downside risks linked to margin pressure.
Current geopolitical developments, particularly restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, are increasing PGM production energy costs in certain regions. These pressures are also expected to feed through into higher input costs, particularly for certain chemicals and reagents.
However, elevated basket prices should offset much of this impact, and, while this remains an ongoing risk, no significant disruption to global mine supply is currently anticipated. Output from most major South African producers is expected to show limited overall change, with some variability across individual producers.
At Implats, improved processing availability is set to support a modest rise in own-refined output. With the rebuild of Furnace 4 completed, the company expects increased processing capacity to enable the continued drawdown of excess semi f inished inventory, boosting refined volumes by over the remaining nine months of the year. At Valterra Platinum the recovery of full operations at Amandelbult following the 2025 flooding is expected to be offset by a smaller release of semi-finished inventory.
At Sibanye-Stillwater, their own refined volumes are expected to edge lower, as the ramp-up of the K4 shaft does not fully offset declines at more mature shafts. Northam is projected to see a modest increase in refined volumes, supported by gains at Booysendal and increased processing of third-party material linked to the ramp-up of the Platreef project.
At Platreef, the planned processing of lower-grade ore during the initial ramp-up is expected to constrain volumes in H1’26, with the transition to Phase 2 production of around 200 koz p.a. platinum anticipated to take approximately three years.
In Zimbabwe, platinum mine supply is expected to remain broadly stable year-on-year at 508 koz, reflecting steady output across operations. The 29 koz build-up of semi-finished inventory, resulting from smelter maintenance at Zimplats in Q1’26, is expected to be drawn down in Q2’26.
Russian output is projected to trend lower due to reduced PGM content in ore sources, while North American production is also expected to decline slightly, reflecting lower by-product output from nickel mining.
Recycling
Total recycling is projected to rise by 9% year-on-year to 1,826 koz this year. Autocatalyst recycling is expected to increase by 10% (+124 koz), driven by stronger North American supply and supported by favourable policy measures.
Europe is also expected to record higher recycling volumes, as spent autocatalyst flows are rerouted amid disruption to Middle Eastern trade routes, supported by EU recycling policies and higher prices. However, loadings are reportedly lower due to older catalysts being recycled.
While lease rates have eased, recyclers continue to face working capital constraints due to markedly higher prices. In China, growth is expected to moderate from 2025 levels as scrappage incentives begin to saturate and offer less attractive returns than prior schemes.
Jewellery scrap supply is forecast to increase by 5% to 373 koz, mainly driven by growth in Japan. Our projections see local PGM prices nearly doubling in that country, fuelling a modest, by comparison, 10% increase in jewellery recycling.
