TIN: Indonesian exports rebounded strongly

Tin prices have lost some momentum over the past fortnight, again correcting from the US$56,000–57,000/t range, which has emerged as an important area of technical resistance this year.

Macroeconomic headwinds have reasserted themselves amid hawkish signals from Jackson Hole last week and renewed US-Iran hostilities. Speculative enthusiasm has also cooled, particularly in China, where SHFE open interest has now fallen for three consecutive weeks.
Following the disruption in Q2, Indonesian exports rebounded strongly in July as more smelters received licence approvals. Nevertheless, cumulative shipments remain 15% below last year, making any growth in global refined production this year increasingly unlikely.

The rapid drawdown in visible exchange stocks also eased in August, while the wide contango in the LME cash-to-three-month spread suggests little shortage of nearby metal. Demand remains mixed, with resilient manufacturing activity and semiconductor and AI-related demand contrasting with weakness in traditional end-use sectors and the slowdown in China’s PV sector.