2026 first quarter platinum market review
The platinum market moved into a surplus of 268 koz in Q1’26, a 926 koz swing year-on-year. This reflected higher supply, and a pronounced outflow from exchange traded fund (ETF) holdings, as investors reacted to softening platinum prices, and a challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.
Total supply increased by 18% year-on-year to 1,736 koz, supported by a 20% rise in primary production to 1,320 koz. Secondary supply rose by 7% year-on-year to 416 koz. In contrast, total demand fell by 31% year-on-year to 1,468 koz, driven by liquidations of ETF holdings and an outflow of exchange stocks.
Automotive and jewellery demand were also softer, while industrial demand was up, mainly due to net negative glass demand in the comparative quarter last year. Geopolitical tensions intensified, pushing energy prices significantly higher. This tempered the broader precious metals rally, as inflation risks re-emerged in response to rising energy costs, which in turn fuelled expectations of higher interest rates. That said, this quarter saw the highest average price, beating the previous record set in Q2’08.
Supply
Global refined mine supply began this year with a strong recovery from its low base in Q1’25, rising 20% year-on-year to 1,320 koz. South African output recorded an unseasonably strong start, increasing 41% year-on-year to 1,002 koz. This was driven by a significant uplift in refined output from Valterra Platinum and Implats. Valterra’s production benefited from the rescheduling of processing maintenance and annual stock counts. Historically, these have been conducted in the first quarter but have now been shifted to the third quarter. This change boosted Q1’26 output above its usual seasonal pattern, where the first quarter is generally weaker. The increase was further supported by the normalisation of operations following flooding disruptions in Q1’25. At Implats, despite the rebuild of Furnace 4 during the quarter, refined volumes rose and were boosted by the release of approximately 36 koz of semi-finished inventory. Zimbabwean output declined sharply, falling 26% year-on-year to 84 koz, a ten-year low, primarily due to reduced production at Zimplats. Furnace maintenance led to constrained output, with operations only restarting in mid-March. As a result, the processing of 29 koz of semi-finished inventory was deferred to the next quarter. Russian output also dropped significantly, falling 24% year on-year to 136 koz, largely reflecting the resequencing of production into other quarters. In North America, production is projected to remain stable year-on-year.
Recycling
Global recycling supply increased by 7% to 416 koz year-on-year. Regional divergences persisted in autocatalyst recycling. North America recorded the strongest gains, supported by both price and US policy. Favourable tax credits are increasingly supporting the scaling of the domestic recycling supply chain, particularly in smelting and refining. Europe also recorded higher recycling. Material previously flowing to UAE pre-processing facilities was disrupted by the Middle East conflict that broke out on 28 February, forcing alternative routes to be used. However, recyclers globally have reported that they have seen a rise in the average age of received catalysts. As a result, loadings per unit have fallen compared to previous years, partly offsetting higher volumes. In China, a shift to a percentage-based vehicle subsidy at the start of the year, which tempered new car sales, capped the increase in volumes. In Japan, official end-of-life vehicle (ELV) dismantling statistics revealed a continued decline in this sector’s activity.
Demand
Global demand in Q1’26 fell sharply by 31% (659 koz) to 1,468 koz. This was driven mainly by a reversal in investment flows and softer end-use demand across several major segments. Platinum ETF holdings recorded net outflows of 255 koz as higher prices encouraged profit taking. One year on, with greater clarity on tariff impacts, exchange stocks, largely on the CME, fell by 119 koz, alongside softer EFPs.
Jewellery and autocatalyst demand declined, more than offsetting strength in selected industrial segments. In contrast, physical investment strengthened in Q1.
