Hot rolled coil at record high amid tight supply

Amid tight supply conditions, prices of benchmark HRC are continuing to surge in many parts of the world. Reports suggest that steel mills in US are quoting USD 1300-1330 per short ton for HRC, which implies per tonne prices of USD 1430-1460 (Metric tonne : Short Ton conversion ratio of 1.10), probably highest ever.

Similarly, HR prices in Europe are reported to be surging with some steel mills attempting hikes in South & North to EUR 800-850 per tonne ie USD 950-1010. Russian steel mills are reported to have increased their HR export offer to align with domestic prices in Europe at USD 900 EXW prices in Turkey.
On the other hand HR domestic prices in China are about CNY 5100 per tonne ie USD 780 or USD 680 per tonne net of 13% VAT & Chinese HRC prices were assessed at USD 730 FOB on last Friday, while HRC export prices from Japan & South Korea are reported at USD 780-800 plus FOB
In comparison, HR prices in India this month are about INR 52500 -54500 per tonne landed plus GST ie just about USD 730. HRC imports below USD 800, including 7.5% custom duty, are unlikely, giving space of hike of about USD 50-70 ie INR 3500-5000.

Market reports suggest that Indian steel mills are planning to achieve 55000-57000 levels in April but we need to wait for their April price lines to get clarity.

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