Tin market stabilises despite a challenging macro backdrop
Tin is recognised as a critical mineral in the US, EU, UK, and is listed as strategic in Australia and Indonesia. As a vital metal underpinning all electronics, including solar PV technology, tin has seen a challenging supply picture in recent years, bringing tin prices to near all-time-highs in 2026.
Tin prices have stabilised over the past fortnight, recovering to around $54,000/t after briefly falling below $52,000/t in mid-September. The recovery has come despite a challenging macro backdrop, with rising bond yields, a stronger dollar and elevated oil prices maintaining pressure across the metals complex. Tin investor positioning has also moderated, particularly in China where speculative support has continued to ease over the past two months.
The supply outlook has turned less bullish, with Indonesian exports rebounding strongly in Q3 following the licensing-related disruption seen in Q2 as more smelters return to operation. LME inventories have nevertheless continued to decline and the cash-to-three-month contango has narrowed, suggesting some firming in nearby conditions. Demand remains mixed, with strength in technology-related applications contrasting with weakness across several traditional end-use sectors.
As we enter Q4, improving supply and subdued demand growth increasingly point towards a more balanced global tin market for 2026 as a whole says Tom Langston – Senior Market Analyst.
